The Fire of Truth

Recently I sat down with John Biewen for a Campfire Conversation. John is the host of Scene on Radio, a podcast I’ve referenced before. In my opinion, calling Scene on Radio a podcast doesn’t do it justice. John has dived deep into some complex topics from Capitalism and Democracy to Race, the Environment, and the Patriarchy. He is now in the process of working on a season on Media.

My Campfire Conversation with John will be coming out next week.

At the end of every Campfire Conversation, I ask my guests the same question: What are the fires we need to tend in ourselves and our communities?

John’s answer has been echoing in my head.

“We really need to tend to the fire of telling the truth.”

I didn’t know how quickly I’d be tested on that.

A few days after our conversation, I was in the car with some family friends. The relationship is complicated to explain. He’s the husband of my wife’s step-mom’s first cousin. No blood connection, but we consider them family.

We were driving to dinner when the conversation turned. He said, “I don’t want to get political, but…”

I braced myself for what was going to follow.

He made a claim that sounded specific and confident. Something about how the Biden administration had intentionally allowed undocumented immigrants across the border to preserve congressional seats. He mentioned Chuck Schumer admitting to the strategy.

I didn’t argue. I didn’t agree. I just listened.

John’s words were still in my head, “tend to the fire of telling the truth.”

So, the next day I went on a truth-seeking adventure. What began as a quick fact-check became hours of research. Pew Research. Migration Policy Institute. Census methodology. Academic studies from peer-reviewed journals. DHS data. Court cases. Congressional testimony.

I wasn’t trying to win an argument. I wasn’t trying to prove him wrong. I genuinely wanted to know: Is this true?

Here’s what I found.

Some of what he said was true. California’s population would have declined without immigration. The state lost 240,000 residents to other states but gained 312,000 through people from other countries.

According to Pew Research Center, the undocumented population has grown significantly, from 10.5 million in 2021 to around 14 million in 2023. And yes, the census counts everyone regardless of immigration status, so undocumented people do impact congressional seats. That’s been the law since the first census in 1790.

When I looked at where undocumented immigrants live, the story started to shift. Here’s what Pew Research found about where undocumented immigrants reside:

And according to Pew, the largest growth in undocumented population since 2021 was in Florida. They added 700,000. Texas added 500,000. California added 400,000. The two states with the biggest increases are both Republican leaning.

Then I looked at the congressional seat claim. This was the core of what he said. The fact that undocumented immigrants were giving Democrats extra seats in Congress.

This claim has been circulating widely. In March 2024, Elon Musk said in an interview that “Democrats would lose approximately 20 seats in the House if illegals were not counted in the census.”

So, I looked at what the research actually shows.

A peer-reviewed study published in PNAS Nexus in February 2025 analyzed every census since 1980. They found that no more than two House seats would have shifted between political parties in any year if all undocumented immigrants were excluded.

But we weren’t talking about over time. We are talking about now.

Here is what actually happened in the most recent census (2020). Pew Research found that if undocumented immigrants had been excluded, six states would have been affected.

Net partisan result: Zero. Democrats and Republicans would have had the exact same number of seats.

But what about more recent data? The undocumented population has grown since 2020. Maybe the numbers have shifted?

The Center for Immigration Studies, an organization that advocates for reduced immigration, published a projection in October 2024. They estimated what would happen if a census were conducted now.

Net partisan result: Republicans +1, Democrats -1.

Even an organization that advocates for reduced immigration found a net shift of 1 seat. Not 20. 1. And 1 in the favor of the political party that is working hard for limiting immigration.

If this were a coordinated strategy, the results don’t show it.

And the Schumer quote? I tracked down what he actually said in November 2022:

“Now more than ever, we’re short of workers. We have a population that is not reproducing on its own with the same level that it used to. The only way we’re going to have a great future in America is if we welcome and embrace immigrants.”

He was talking about labor shortages. He said nothing about congressional seats. Some conservative commentators interpreted it as an admission of “replacement” strategy. But from what I can see, Schumer made no such connection.

What Didn’t Add Up

ICE has certainly been in the news a lot recently. From Minnesota to Maine, you can’t escape it. From my understanding, the surge in ICE activity is to deport the worst of the worst. To get the most dangerous, undocumented immigrants out of the US.

As DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in January 2026:

“On President Trump’s first day in office, he unleashed ICE to target the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens, including pedophiles, murderers, gang members, terrorists, and rapists.”

If that is that goal, one might expect that ICE agents would be fishing in stocked ponds. Places with the highest number and percentage of undocumented immigrants. You’d focus on Texas, Florida, California, and New York.

Instead, here’s what’s been happening.

Minnesota: According to DHS, 3,000+ federal agents deployed in “Operation Metro Surge.” Undocumented population: approximately 130,000.

Maine: Operation “Catch of the Day” with 1,400 named targets. Undocumented population: approximately 5,000.

Let me put that in perspective.

According to DHS, ICE’s total workforce nationwide is 22,000. Minnesota currently has about 14% of ICE’s entire national workforce. And they are deployed to target less than 1% of the nation’s undocumented population.

If you applied Minnesota’s ratio to the states with the highest numbers and/or percentage of undocumented people, it would look like this.

Total agents needed to match Minnesota’s ratio in just these 6 states: 181,859

Total ICE workforce nationwide: 22,000

Call me crazy, but I would rather be fishing in Florida if I were ICE. Looks to be the best stocked pond to me.

And here’s something I can’t reconcile.

ICE says they’re prioritizing the most dangerous people first. And 28% of Maine’s entire undocumented population is on that list. I live in Maine. If nearly one in three undocumented immigrants here were truly dangerous, you might suspect that we would be a pretty dangerous place to live.

We’re not.

According to FBI crime data, Maine has the lowest violent crime rate in the nation. 100 incidents per 100,000 people, compared to the national average of 359. And we are regularly considered in the top 3 safest states in the country year after year.

Either Maine’s undocumented population is somehow seven times more criminal than the general population, which would show up in our crime statistics. Or the targeting criteria aren’t really about danger.

It seems the pattern isn’t about efficiency or effectiveness. It seems to be about something else as the math doesn’t seem to add up for me.

What I’m Sitting With

I haven’t gone back to my family friend with all of this. And I’m not planning to. That’s not really the point.

The point is that John’s words changed how I responded to that car ride. Instead of reacting and trying to be right based on my beliefs, I got curious. I did the work. And in the age where so much misinformation is out there, the work is hard.

It takes time. A lot of time.

It takes questioning things you believe.

It takes accepting facts, even if they don’t support what you believe.

In this case, the facts were more aligned with my beliefs. And I am still questioning whether I fully explored all the facts on the other side of the argument.

But here’s what I keep coming back to: I could have just believed him. Or I could have just dismissed him. Either would have been easier than spending hours in the data.

Truth-telling isn’t about winning. It’s about tending. It’s slower than a good comeback. It doesn’t give you the satisfaction of being right in the moment. And boy do I love being right.

It requires patience. Not necessarily my greatest skill.

And it demands that you hold your own assumptions accountable too.

Maybe that’s what tending the fire of truth looks like. Not confirming what we already believe. Not scoring points. Just following the trail where it leads. And being willing to say what we find, even when it’s complicated.

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Sources: Pew Research Center (unauthorized immigrant population estimates, 2023; apportionment analysis, 2020), Migration Policy Institute, PNAS Nexus (Jurgens & Testa, February 2025), Center for Immigration Studies (October 2024 projection), U.S. Census Bureau, FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Department of Homeland Security, Cato Institute, FactCheck.org, Deportation Data Project (UC Berkeley), Minnesota Star Tribune, CBS News, PBS NewsHour. Full citations available on request.